Hitting the road
The Government’s c document strikes me as being more like a timetable than a roadmap, given the warning of cancellations. It is quite a convoluted document (68 pages of it!) and it has been well covered in the media so here I will focus on the provisions which affect us pub goers. All the stages occur at intervals of a minimum of five weeks and are subject to satisfactory progress with the following criteria:
• the vaccination programme continues to go to plan;
• there is a sufficient reduction in the number of people dying from the virus or needing hospital treatment;
• rates of infection are not likely to cause a surge in hospital admissions and put the NHS under pressure;
• there are no new coronavirus variants which fundamentally change the level of risk.
The first key date (Step 1 Part 1) was 8 March, when schools reopened. By the time you read this we should know if, as some had predicted, this caused a rise in the COVID infection rate and consequently the whole plan has been cast into doubt.
There were further changes scheduled for 29 March (Step 1 Part 2) which saw the end of the general ‘stay at home’ restriction, although many restrictions, including those on travel and staying away from home overnight, remained in place.
12 April (Step 2): pubs with gardens and open spaces may reopen but, as before, only with table service, contact tracing measures and customers restricted to groups of up to six from any number of households. Social distancing remains in force and there must be no mixing. Customers cannot order from the bar or drink standing up. It is expected that they will be able to use the pub’s toilets but, again, as before, facemasks must be worn when moving around, although this is yet to be confirmed. The 10pm curfew and the substantial meal requirements have definitely been dropped. If any marquees or similar structures are in use, more than half of the sides must be open (the same requirement as for smoking shelters).
The same rules apply to restaurants. The ‘fast track’ temporary licensing of pavement tables will be in operation again. As mentioned in the Introduction (page 3), at this point pubs will also be allowed to sell take-away alcohol once more. Non-essential businesses can reopen at the same time. This includes hairdressers and so, should you need a tidy up before returning to the pub, you can get one.
17 May (Step 3): pubs and restaurants can allow customers inside. The previous regulations as above continue, although some changes may be made to allow people to make what the Government calls ‘informed personal decisions’. Groups of up to 30 customers will be permitted outside.
Restrictions on stays in hotels will end, although travel is still to be kept to a minimum. Large events will be permitted, inside and outdoor, but with restrictions on the numbers attending.
Starting in April, some limited pilot events will be permitted to establish the rules for further, larger ones.
21 June (Stage 4): legal restrictions as regards social contact will end but, nearer the time, the Government will be issuing revised guidance on continuing to minimise the risk of transmission. Consequently, we might not have seen the end of table service and the like. Nightclubs may open.
Happily, this time, brewers and other suppliers have plenty of notice to have beer ready for the full reopening of pubs, although it is not impossible that the plan might be halted at just a week’s notice.
There seems little scope for beer festivals even at this stage, unless they are relatively small and they can provide table service. What can be organised later in the year will depend on what rules are made following the assessment of the pilot events.
Reaction from the Trade
In response to the various advance briefings, Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of UKHospitality said, “Keeping indoor areas closed until May and only allowing the use of outdoor areas is going to be economically unviable for many businesses. If this is the plan for reopening, it will see more businesses going under. We need a plan to get pubs open safely more quickly, otherwise the sector is in real danger of even more failures and job losses.” Tim Martin, the chairman of JD Wetherspoon, told the Mail Online, “These decisions are made by ministers with no experience of business or empathy for business. In my 41 years in business, it’s the least consultative and most authoritarian Government I’ve experienced.”
Earlier in February, a group of pub sector executives, led by Partrick Dardis of Young’s and Kevin Georgel of St Austell, resigned from the weekly forum run by Paul Scully, the Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Mr Dardis told the Morning Advertiser, “We are exasperated at the obvious lack of interest and respect we are getting from this Government. It is abundantly clear that they are just playing politics under the guise of consulting. We are shocked and appalled that the government is basing its decisions to keep the great British pub closed on unfounded and unproven statistics.” Addressing the Prime Minister, he added, “Please do the right thing and demonstrate strong leadership when our industry needs it most.”
There had previously been some bad feeling when the job of representing the hospitality sector on the Government’s Build Back Better Council, set up to advise on economic recovery and growth after the COVID crisis has passed, had been given to the chief executive of the restaurant chain Prezzo.
Pub closures
According to an analysis published in the Morning Advertiser on 22 January, the number of licensed premises in the UK fell by almost 6,000 during 2020. This was across the full hospitality sector. It compares to 2,171 in 2019. The 2020 figure was made up of 9,930 closures, net of 3,955 new openings. The attrition rate for pubs was between 4% and 5% but for the ‘casual dining’ sector it was almost 10%. A number of restaurant chains closed or reduced their number of outlets, leaving a lot of gaps in high streets. It occurs to me that while many pubs will reopen on 17 May, trade will be low, to begin with at least, and their accumulated debts (deferred rent, support loans, etc) will catch up with them. I’d like to think that if a pub can hang on until Christmas/New Year, it will probably survive. Let’s hope that there will not be a third surge.
Without substance
The circumstances under which the infamous ‘substantial meal’ requirement was dropped aren’t entirely clear. Sacha Lord, the Night-time Economy Adviser for Greater Manchester, had taken legal action against the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock, claiming that the rule was discriminatory in that it showed ‘an ignorant disregard for the most disadvantaged or oldest in society who are unable to afford meals just to be able to socialise with friends, see loved ones or simply feel part of their community’. As quoted in the Morning Advertiser on 1 March, the High Court ruling was that, “It is arguable there is no scientific evidence to support the distinction that has been drawn between the service of alcohol in accordance with the table meal exemption and serving alcohol in other circumstances. It is arguable that a policy which permits drinking alcohol with a meal but does not permit such premises to open if they do not serve a substantial table meal discriminates against people from a non-white or BAME (black, Asian and minority ethnic) background.” The Secretary of State did not file his defence until 25 February. He referred to the Prime Minister’s announcement three days earlier and said that the regulation had been dropped.
There was also a judicial review of the 10pm curfew which was heard on 3 December but I have not been able to find out what happened there. In any event, that has also been discarded.